Tuesday, July 1, 2014
Soybean futures are being pummeled after the USDA crop report showed that farmers intend on planting the largest acreage on record. Bean futures are already slumping prior to the government agency report. Normally, one can latch onto at least one or two items in a USDA report and say the data is not all bearish or bullish. However, yesterday's report does not show a single detail that can even modestly be seen as supportive of prices.
US Soybean inventories were 405 million bushels to begin the month of June, trumping most estimates. The median estimate was around 382 million bushels which was already a lofty figure. Soybean area for harvest is estimated at a record high 84.1 million acres, if realized, up 7.4 million acres (11 percent) from 2013.most of the gains came in northern states, which experienced a long, harsh winter. The winner delayed Corn plantings. The combination of delays and unattractive Corn prices resulted in the shift in acreage. Record high planted acreage is estimated in Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New York, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wisconsin. According to a separate report from the USDA, about 72 percent of the crop was rated in good or excellent condition on June 29, up from 67 percent a year earlier. Soybean futures are unlikely to find outside support from Corn or Wheat. At this juncture, Soybean bulls are hoping that cheaper price could spark some demand.
Turning to the chart, we see the November Soybean contract breaking near-term support at the 1200 level in very convincing fashion. Prices also moved through some minor support near 1170. The November contract also took out the 100 day moving average, which can be seen as bearish in the intermediate. The sharp drop in prices also resulted in the RSI indicator dipping into oversold territory.
Rob Kurzatkowski, Senior Commodity Analyst