Iran Embargo Fails to Awaken Oil Bulls
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Crude Oil traders have once again proven to be a fickle bunch, resulting in the wind coming out of the sails of the most recent rally. Investor confidence has eroded to an extent on the failure of Greece to come to a debt arrangement and also on economic concerns from China. Technically, signs are pointing to possible consolidation. Some traders may perhaps with to consider entering into a bear call spread, such as buying a March Crude Oil 107 call and selling a March 105 call for a credit of 0.35, or $350.
Fundamentals
Crude Oil futures have been drifting lower during recent sessions, unable to sustain any upward momentum. The news of the European embargo on Iranian goods, including Oil, has done little to shake Crude bulls out of hiding. In their response statement, Iran took a much less threatening tone, notably omitting any mention of a possible shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz. The Greek debt impasse has weighed on the commodity and equity markets overnight, demonstrating that nothing is certain with the embattled nation and further shrinking investor confidence, if that is even possible. The renewed concerns about Greece and assurances from Saudi Arabia that they will keep Oil flowing have largely neutralized any bullish sentiment that may have arisen from the Iranian embargo. The deciding factor in the near-term direction of the Oil market could come from economic and supply data, although more aggressive posturing from Iran could be a wild card.
Technical Notes
Technically, the March Crude Oil has once again failed to have a meaningful breakout above the 104 level, reversing and drifting lower. The 50-day moving average has acted as support recently, suggesting that some traders may wish to keep a close eye on prices near the average. Successive closes below the average could be a signal that prices may move lower in the near-term. The 95.00 mark may be an important level near-term, as closes below the price could suggest prices may test the low 90's.
Rob Kurzatkowski, Senior Commodity Analyst
