Stock Indexes Feel the Heat
S&P – The stock market commemorated the 20th anniversary of the Black Monday meltdown with a huge sell-off on Friday. The lingering credit crunch has hit the markets especially hard over the past week, stoking fears that the economy may contract even if the Fed continues cutting rates. Many traders had been tolerating the disappointing housing numbers, figuring that corporate bottom lines might at least benefit. But this view has largely changed in the wake of Bank of America's disappointing earnings release, which demonstrated yet again that subprime debt worries are very much in play. The subprime worries have made their way around the globe, with international investors scooping up distressed debt and the European and Asian markets bracing for the oncoming pinch. The bludgeoning of the market continues this morning, with the December e-mini S&P dropping over 12 points after shedding over 40 on Friday. American Express and Countrywide – both with heavy debt exposure – are set to release earnings today, and traders anticipating bad numbers have been dumping shares of both stocks in the early going. The December e-mini dropped below the 50-day moving average on Friday as the market closed on support in the 1505 area. Currently, the market is well through this support area, as well as the key 1500 psychological mark. The e-mini is also very oversold, registering a 24 percent reading as of Friday's close and a reading in the low teens this morning, which could bring some bargain hunters back into the market. Likewise, slow stochastics are very oversold, but have not given an indication when a crossover will take place. Support now comes in at 1485 and 1465, while resistance can be found at 1520 and 1530.
Wheat – Wheat went limit-up on Friday on news that Russia plans to curb exports, a move that would test the already tight stocks in the global Wheat markets. Wheat is off this morning, as Russia enacted a 10 percent tax on exports instead of the 30 percent tax many were expecting. Solid rains across much of the winter Wheat-growing region have only been a minor obstacle to farmers still planting and should aid growth. Traders may continue the recent liquidation phase in the market due to the weak technicals and lack of positive fundamental data. The market confirmed a head and shoulders top last week that measures a move into the low 700's. Support has been found in the 50-day moving average, with the market unable to even temporarily break through this area. Momentum is beginning to show fairly significant bearish divergence from the RSI and price, suggesting a near-term bearish bias. Support can be found at 815.50 and 765, while resistance comes in at 890 and 910.
Copper – The fire sale in the equity markets has Copper traders liquidating positions. The weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. housing sector continues to plague the market, but a broader global slowdown could send the market spiraling downward. If economic conditions cause a recession in the U.S. and a slowdown in Europe and Asia, Chinese exports would likely slow significantly, which could dramatically decrease demand for Copper going forward and decrease the chances of fresh stockpiling by China. December Copper confirmed a double top, measuring a move to 338.20 last week. It looks like the 50-day moving average has provided some support to the market – at least initially – in overnight trading. Momentum is showing bearish divergence from the RSI, suggesting possible further downside. Support comes in at 342 and 332, while resistance can be found at 358.10 and 366.
Rob Kurzatkowski, Commodity Analyst
