Bulls Lack Energy as Crude Rally Stalls
Energy futures were not immune from a commodity wide sell-off this afternoon, as a rebound in the U.S. Dollar and diminishing storm threats in the Gulf combined to pressure the Oil complex. November Crude Oil fell below $79 at its worst levels of the session, and November Gasoline moved below psychological support at the $2 level. The rebound in the greenback over the past several sessions has triggered a sell-off in the commodity sector in general, with the CRB index down over 4 points in late morning trade. However, traders report lighter than average trade, with U.S. banks and government offices closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Technical traders have noted a potential head and shoulders top forming on the November Crude chart, with “neckline” support seen at $78.44. Should the “neckline” hold, the next resistance point is found at the recent highs of $81.74. Meanwhile, traders await the next EIA energy stocks report, due out Thursday at 9:30 AM Chicago time. November Crude Oil closed at $79.02, down $2.20.
Wheat futures took a tumble this morning, with the Soft Red Winter Wheat contracts traded in Chicago falling by the 30-cent limit as traders reacted to weekend rainfall in the parched Wheat growing areas of Australia. In addition, traders are looking towards next year’s crop, with expectations that producers will plant heavily this fall to take advantage of the favorable price being quoted for new-crop Wheat futures. Bullish Wheat traders will note that volume was light due to the Columbus Day holiday, which may have exaggerated the sell-off in many of the commody markets this morning, including Wheat. The December contract closed below the 20-day moving average for the first time since July, which may signal further selling by momentum traders. The next support point for December Wheat is seen at the September 14th lows at $8.28, with resistance found at $8.88. December Wheat closed at $8.60, down 30 cents.
Mike Zarembski, Senior Commodity Analyst
