Bears Freshly Squeezed as O.J. Rallies to 4-Month Highs
Orange Juice futures surged this morning as speculative buying emerged ahead of Friday’s USDA crop production report. Traders expect a rebound in Florida Orange production for the 2007-08 crop year, with current estimates calling for production to total between 170 and 200 million 90-lb. boxes, well above the 129 million box harvest this past year. Traders report fairly heavy technical buying, with buy stops triggered above near-term resistance at 139.00 and 144.00 in the November futures. Prices surged as high as 147.00 before selling emerged to cap the day’s gains. Options volume was heavy as traders position themselves before the government’s first official estimate of the 2007-08 crop. 149.25 is seen as the next resistance level for November Juice, with support found at the 100-day moving average of 133.90. November FCOJ closed at 141.60, up 4.55.
Short-covering buying sparked a rally in Corn futures this afternoon, as traders square up positions ahead of Friday’s USDA Crop report. Traders are looking for an increase in U.S Corn production, with average estimates calling for a 13.5 billion bushel crop versus last month’s estimate of 13.308 billion bushels. Average yields are expected to have increased as well, with traders looking for a nearly 2 bushel per acre gain from last month’s 155.8 bushels per acre USDA estimate. Additional support for Corn today came from gains in pit mates Wheat and Soybeans. Despite today’s rally, December Corn remains well below the major moving averages, with resistance found at the 50-day moving average at $3.52. Support is seen at the recent lows of $3.35. December Corn closed at $3.47 ¼, up 4 ¾ cents.
Mike Zarembski, Senior Commodity Analyst
