Bears Going Hog Wild Despite Recent Commodity Run-up
Hog futures are bucking the trend of higher commodity prices this week, with the lead month October contract falling to lows not seen since October of 2006 as weak wholesale pork demand and lower pork cutout values continue to weigh on futures. Packer bids are seen falling as well, with dealers reporting prices steady to $1 lower. October Hogs continue to trade at a steep discount to the CME Lean Hog index, with Wednesday’s value coming in at 64.72. This week’s sharp price drop has sent the 14-day RSI to vastly oversold levels, with a current reading of 13.15. High grain prices have some traders fearing that producers will start liquidating some of the Hog herds, which would put near-term pressure on prices as supplies increase. Support for October Hogs is seen at $60.00, with resistance found at $63.50. October Lean Hogs closed at 61.35, down 1.02
Wheat Futures ended the week on a high note, as export sales continue despite near-record Wheat prices. Sales of 700,000 tons of Wheat to Iraq and 100,000 tons to Algeria started the session on an up note. Speculative buyers then entered the fold, especially after the December contract moved above yesterday’s highs of $8.61 ¼. There is talk that Russia will impose limits on grain exports, which if true would force more business to the U.S., especially with a weak Dollar making U.S. exports more attractive. Weather forecasts continue to call for little moisture in the Wheat-growing regions of Australia, which will not help the already struggling crop. Support for December Wheat is seen at $8.28, with resistance found at $8.98. December Wheat closed at $8.72, up 22 cents.
