Analysts’ opinions mixed on tomorrow's non-farm payrolls report
Economists and traders have a relatively wide range of estimates on tomorrow's payroll figures. On the low end are those looking at yesterday's release of the ADP/Macroeconomic estimate of 97,000 new private sector jobs created in May. On the upper end, those looking at improved weather conditions and an upswing in the factory sector are calling for a payrolls figure closer to 150,000 new jobs. There is greater consensus on an unchanged unemployment rate, which currently stands at 4.5%. Average hourly earnings – a measure of wage inflation closely watched by Federal Reserve officials – are expected to show a moderate increase of 0.3% in May. Market participants will also be watching for any revisions in the March and April payroll figures. Set your alarm clocks early, as the Labor Department will be releasing the May figures at 7:30 AM Chicago time.
FCOJ futures closed the month of May sharply lower, as speculative and fund selling tied to forecasts for potential rain in the parched citrus growing region of Florida overwhelmed light trade buying. The most active July contract fell to lows not seen since April 20th, as traders report moderate sell-stops being triggered below the recent lows of 154.50. Traders report active spread trading as long-term speculative accounts begin to roll out of July and into the November contract. The next support area for July OJ is seen at 148.00, with major support found at the April 19th lows of 146.00. Resistance is found at 160.50. July Orange Juice closed at 151.40, down 6.10.
